ANALISIS PENGARUH SUKU BUNGA, JUMLAH UANG BEREDAR DAN NILAI TUKAR TERHADAP STABILITAS HARGA DI INDONESIA: STUDI KASUS PRA PANDEMI DAN PASCA PANDEMI COVID-19 DITINJAU DARI PERSPEKTIF EKONOMI ISLAM

SEFTI, LEDIYA DEVI (2026) ANALISIS PENGARUH SUKU BUNGA, JUMLAH UANG BEREDAR DAN NILAI TUKAR TERHADAP STABILITAS HARGA DI INDONESIA: STUDI KASUS PRA PANDEMI DAN PASCA PANDEMI COVID-19 DITINJAU DARI PERSPEKTIF EKONOMI ISLAM. Diploma thesis, UIN Raden Intan Lampung.

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Abstract

ABSTRAK Stabilitas harga merupakan indikator krusial dalam menjaga kepastian iklim investasi, melindungi daya beli masyarakat, dan mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi yang berkelanjutan di Indonesia. Dinamika stabilitas harga sangat dipengaruhi oleh efektivitas kebijakan moneter serta pergerakan variabel makroekonomi di pasar uang dan valuta asing. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh suku bunga, Jumlah Uang Beredar (JUB), dan nilai tukar terhadap stabilitas harga di Indonesia dengan komparasi periode pra-pandemi dan pasca pandemi Covid-19. Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif kuasai-eksperimen komparatif dengan model Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) menggunakan data sekunder time series bulanan periode 2016–2024. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa pada periode pra-pandemi, JUB berpengaruh positif dan signifikan dalam jangka panjang, suku bunga berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan dalam jangka pendek, sedangkan nilai tukar tidak berpengaruh signifikan. Sebaliknya, pada periode pasca-pandemi, suku bunga tidak berpengaruh signifikan, sementara JUB dan nilai tukar berpengaruh signifikan dalam jangka pendek terhadap stabilitas harga. Hal ini membuktikan adanya pergeseran struktural mekanisme transmisi moneter akibat pandemi Covid-19. Dalam perspektif ekonomi Islam, stabilitas harga merupakan instrumen penting untuk mewujudkan maslahah melalui keadilan ekonomi, keseimbangan pasar, dan perlindungan daya beli demi tercapainya kesejahteraan sesuai prinsip syariah. Kata kunci: Suku bunga, jumlah uang beredar, nilai tukar, stabilitas harga, inflasi, ekonomi islam. ABSTRACT Price stability is a crucial indicator for maintaining a predictable investment climate, protecting public purchasing power, and fostering sustainable economic growth in Indonesia. The dynamics of price stability are significantly influenced by the effectiveness of monetary policy as well as movements in macroeconomic variables in the money and foreign exchange markets. This study aims to analyze the effects of interest rates, the money supply (JUB), and the exchange rate on price stability in Indonesia by comparing the pre-pandemic and post-COVID 19 pandemic periods. This study employs a quantitative comparative quasi-experimental approach using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model with secondary monthly time-series data from 2016 to 2024. The results indicate that during the pre-pandemic period, M1 had a positive and significant long-run effect, Interest rates have a negative and significant effect in the short term, whereas the exchange rate has no significant effect. Conversely, in the post-pandemic period, interest rates have no significant effect, while the JUB and the exchange rate have a significant short-term effect on price stability. This demonstrates a structural shift in the monetary transmission mechanism due to the COVID-19 pandemic. From an Islamic economic perspective, price stability is a crucial instrument for realizing maslahah through economic justice, market equilibrium, and the protection of purchasing power to achieve welfare in accordance with Sharia principles. Keywords: Interest rates, money supply, exchange rates, price stability, inflation, Islamic economics.

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