PENGARUH NERACA PERDAGANGAN, SUKU BUNGA, DAN INFLASI TERHADAP NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH DI INDONESIA DALAM PERSPEKTIF EKONOMI ISLAM TAHUN 2008-2024

SELLYA, NARA KARTIKA (2026) PENGARUH NERACA PERDAGANGAN, SUKU BUNGA, DAN INFLASI TERHADAP NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH DI INDONESIA DALAM PERSPEKTIF EKONOMI ISLAM TAHUN 2008-2024. Diploma thesis, UIN RADEN INTAN LAMPUNG.

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Abstract

ABSTRAK Nilai tukar rupiah merupakan indikator penting yang mencerminkan stabilitas perekonomian suatu negara serta berperan strategis dalam menentukan kelancaran perdagangan internasional, arus investasi, dan kestabilan harga domestik. Dalam sebuah sistem ekonomi terbuka, nilai tukar dipengaruhi oleh interaksi berbagai indikator makroekonomi. Selain itu, penelitian ini juga mengkaji fenomena nilai tukar berdasarkan prinsip keadilan, keseimbangan, stabilitas, serta larangan riba dalam aktivitas ekonomi, khususnya dalam transaksi pertukaran mata uang (sharf). Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis Pengaruh Neraca Perdagangan, Suku Bunga dan Inflasi terhadap Nilai Tukar Rupiah di Indonesia dalam Perspektif Ekonomi Islam selama periode 2008 sampai 2024. Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif dengan metode analisis regresi linear berganda. Data yang digunakan merupakan data sekunder berupa data tahunan yang diperoleh dari publikasi resmi Bank Indonesia dan Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) selama periode 2008-2024. Variabel neraca perdagangan, suku bunga, dan inflasi digunakan sebagai variabel independen, sedangkan nilai tukar rupiah sebagai variabel dependen. Pengujian dilakukan melalui uji asumsi klasik serta uji signifikansi parsial dan simultan untuk mengetahui pengaruh masing-masing variabel terhadap nilai tukar rupiah. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa secara parsial, variabel neraca perdagangan berpengaruh positif dan tidak signifikan terhadap nilai tukar rupiah di Indonesia. Variabel suku bunga dan inflasi masingmasing berpengaruh negatif dan tidak signifikan terhadap nilai tukar rupiah selama periode penelitian. Secara simultan, ketiga variabel penelitian ini tidak berpengaruh signifikan terhadap nilai tukar rupiah di Indonesia. Temuan ini mengindikasikan bahwa pergerakan nilai tukar rupiah lebih dominan dipengaruhi oleh faktor eksternal seperti kondisi ekonomi global, kebijakan moneter negara maju, serta sentimen pasar internasional. Dalam perspektif ekonomi Islam, stabilitas nilai tukar rupiah sejalan dengan prinsip maqashid syariah guna menjaga kemaslahatan ekonomi dan kesejahteraan masyarakat. ABSTRACT The rupiah exchange rate is an important indicator reflecting a country’s economic stability and plays a strategic role in determining the smoothness of international trade, investment flows, and domestic price stability. In an open economic system, the exchange rate is influenced by the interaction of various macroeconomic indicators. Furthermore, this study also examines the exchange rate phenomenon based on the principles of justice, balance, stability, and the prohibition of usury in economic activities, particularly in currency exchange transactions (sharf). This study aims to analyze the influence of the trade balance, interest rates, and inflation on the rupiah exchange rate in Indonesia from an Islamic economic perspective during the period 2008 to 2024. This study uses a quantitative approach with multiple linear regression analysis. The data used are secondary, annual data obtained from official publications of Bank Indonesia and the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) for the period 2008-2024. The trade balance, interest rates, and inflation are used as independent variables, while the rupiah exchange rate is used as the dependent variable. Testing was conducted using classical assumption tests, as well as partial and simultaneous significance tests to determine the effect of each variable on the rupiah exchange rate. The results of the study indicate that partially, the trade balance variable has a positive but insignificant effect on the rupiah exchange rate in Indonesia. The interest rate and inflation variables each have a negative and insignificant effect on the rupiah exchange rate during the study period. Simultaneously, these three research variables do not significantly influence the rupiah exchange rate in Indonesia. These findings indicate that the rupiah exchange rate movement is predominantly influenced by external factors such as global economic conditions, monetary policies of developed countries, and international market sentiment. From an Islamic economic perspective, the stability of the rupiah exchange rate is in line with the principles of sharia maqashid, wich aims to maintain economic welfare and public welfare.

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