PENGARUH INDEKS PERSEPSI KORUPSI, BELANJA PEMERINTAH DAN CADANGAN DEVISA TERHADAP STABILITAS EKONOMI DI 5 NEGARA ASEAN DALAM PERSPEKTIF EKONOMI ISLAM (Analisa Data Panel 2015-2024)

Nurmala, Sari (2025) PENGARUH INDEKS PERSEPSI KORUPSI, BELANJA PEMERINTAH DAN CADANGAN DEVISA TERHADAP STABILITAS EKONOMI DI 5 NEGARA ASEAN DALAM PERSPEKTIF EKONOMI ISLAM (Analisa Data Panel 2015-2024). Diploma thesis, UIN RADEN INTAN LAMPUNG.

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Abstract

ABSTRAK Stabilitas ekonomi menjadi salah satu faktor penting dalam menjaga ketahanan perekonomian negara terhadap dinamika global. Negara-negara ASEAN masih menghadapi berbagai tantangan, seperti tingginya tingkat korupsi, pengelolaan belanja pemerintah yang belum sepenuhnya efektif, serta fluktuasi cadangan devisa yang berpotensi mengganggu kestabilan ekonomi. Data Transparency International tahun 2023 menunjukkan bahwa skor Indeks Persepsi Korupsi (X1) di Indonesia dan Filipina masih rendah (34), Thailand (35), Vietnam (41), sedangkan Malaysia relatif lebih tinggi (50). Dari sisi fiskal, Belanja Pemerintah (X2) terhadap PDB juga beragam, misalnya Indonesia 27 sampai 41%, Malaysia 75 sampai 82%, dan Vietnam menurun hingga 57%. Sementara itu, Cadangan Devisa (X3) menunjukkan tren yang berbeda antarnegara. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh CPI, belanja pemerintah, dan cadangan devisa terhadap stabilitas ekonomi di lima negara ASEAN (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Filipina, dan Vietnam) periode 2015–2024, baik secara parsial maupun simultan, serta meninjau dari perspektif ekonomi Islam. Metode penelitian yang digunakan adalah pendekatan kuantitatif dengan data panel dan analisis Random Effect Model (REM) menggunakan software Eviews 10. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa secara parsial Indeks Persepsi Korupsi (X1) berpengaruh negatif namun tidak signifikan, Belanja Pemerintah (X2) berpengaruh positif signifikan, sedangkan Cadangan Devisa (X3) tidak signifikan terhadap stabilitas ekonomi. Secara simultan ketiga variabel berpengaruh signifikan terhadap stabilitas ekonomi. Dalam perspektif ekonomi Islam, hasil ini menegaskan pentingnya amanah, transparansi, dan keadilan dalam pengelolaan anggaran publik serta penghindaran praktik korupsi agar stabilitas ekonomi dapat dicapai secara berkelanjutan. ABSTRACT Economic stability is one of the key factors in maintaining a country’s resilience against global economic dynamics. ASEAN countries continue to face challenges such as high levels of corruption, less effective government spending management, and fluctuating foreign exchange reserves that may disrupt economic stability. The Corruption Perceptions Index (X1) score in Indonesia and the Philippines remains low (34), Thailand (35), Vietnam (41), while Malaysia is relatively higher (50). In terms of fiscal policy, Government Expenditure (X2) as a percentage of GDP also varies, with Indonesia fluctuating between 27–41%, Malaysia ranging from 75–82%, and Vietnam declining to 57%. Meanwhile, Foreign Exchange Reserves (X3) show different patterns across countries. This study aims to analyze the effect of CPI, government spending, and foreign exchange reserves on economic stability in five ASEAN countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, and Vietnam) during the period 2015–2024, both partially and simultaneously, as well as to review it from an Islamic economic perspective. The research method employed is a quantitative approach using panel data and Random Effect Model (REM) analysis with the assistance of EViews 10 software. The findings indicate that partially, the Corruption Perceptions Index (X1) has a negative but insignificant effect, Government Spending (X2) has a positive and significant effect, while Foreign Exchange Reserves (X3) have no significant effect on economic stability. Simultaneously, the three variables significantly affect economic stability. From the perspective of Islamic economics, these results emphasize the importance of trustworthiness (amanah), transparency (shafafiyyah), and justice (‘adl) in managing public finances, as well as the prohibition of corruption practices, to ensure sustainable economic stability.

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