PENGARUH VARIABEL MAKRO EKONOMI TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI MITRA DAGANG UTAMA INDONESIA TAHUN 2014-2024 DALAM PERSPEKTIF EKONOMI ISLAM

DIKA, ANGGRAINI PUSPITA (2026) PENGARUH VARIABEL MAKRO EKONOMI TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI MITRA DAGANG UTAMA INDONESIA TAHUN 2014-2024 DALAM PERSPEKTIF EKONOMI ISLAM. Diploma thesis, UIN RADEN INTAN LAMPUNG.

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Abstract

ABSTRAK Penelitian ini dilatarbelakangi oleh keterbukaan ekonomi global yang memperkuat hubungan perdagangan internasional antara Indonesia dan negara mitra dagang utamanya, yaitu Thailand, Singapura, Malaysia, Jepang, China, Korea Selatan, dan Amerika Serikat. Dalam perekonomian terbuka, pertumbuhan ekonomi dipengaruhi oleh faktor eksternal seperti neraca perdagangan, nilai tukar, dan Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). Selain itu, dalam perspektif ekonomi Islam, pertumbuhan ekonomi tidak hanya berorientasi pada aspek material, tetapi juga mencakup nilai spiritual, etika, dan kemaslahatan sehingga mampu menciptakan pembangunan yang seimbang dan berkelanjutan guna mencapai falah. Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif dengan metode regresi data panel. Data sekunder diperoleh dari World Bank dan BPS periode 2014–2024 dengan sampel tujuh negara mitra dagang utama Indonesia. Analisis dilakukan melalui estimasi model panel (CEM, FEM, REM), uji pemilihan model (Chow, Hausman, dan Lagrange Multiplier), serta uji t, uji F, dan koefisien determinasi (R²). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan model terbaik adalah Common Effect Model (CEM). Secara parsial, neraca perdagangan dan FDI berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi, sedangkan nilai tukar berpengaruh negatif dan tidak signifikan. Secara simultan, ketiga variabel berpengaruh signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. Dalam perspektif ekonomi Islam, pertumbuhan ekonomi yang positif menunjukkan adanya upaya mewujudkan kemakmuran yang sejalan dengan prinsip rububiyah, sedangkan keterkaitannya dengan prinsip khilafah hanya dapat dianalisis secara terbatas. Adapun prinsip tauhid dan tazkiyah tidak dapat dianalisis secara langsung melalui indikator pertumbuhan ekonomi. Kata Kunci : Pertumbuhan Ekonomi; Neraca Perdagangan; Nilai Tukar; Foreign Direct Investment (FDI); Data Panel; Ekonomi Islam. ABSTRACT This research is motivated by the openness of the global economy, which strengthens international trade relations between Indonesia and its main trading partner countries, namely Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, Japan, China, South Korea, and the United States. In an open economy, economic growth is influenced by external factors such as the trade balance, exchange rates, and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). Furthermore, from the perspective of Islamic economics, economic growth is not just focused on material aspects, but also includes spiritual values, ethics, and well-being, so it can create balanced and sustainable development to achieve falah. This research uses a quantitative approach with a panel data regression method. Secondary data were obtained from the World Bank and BPS for the period 2014–2024 with a sample of seven of Indonesia's main trading partner countries. The analysis was conducted through panel model estimation (CEM, FEM, REM), model selection tests (Chow, Hausman, and Lagrange Multiplier), as well as t-tests, F-tests, and the coefficient of determination (R²). The research results indicate that the best model is the Common Effect Model (CEM). Partially, the trade balance and FDI have a positive and significant effect on economic growth, while the exchange rate has a negative and insignificant effect. Simultaneously, the three variables have a significant effect on economic growth. From an Islamic economics perspective, positive economic growth indicates efforts to achieve prosperity in line with the principle of rububiyah, while its connection to the khilafah principle can only be analyzed to a limited extent. Meanwhile, the principles of tauhid and tazkiyah cannot be directly analyzed through economic growth indicators. Keywords: Economic Growth; Trade Balance; Exchange Rate; Foreign Direct Investment (FDI); Panel Data; Islamic Economics.

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