ANALISIS PENGARUH GLOBAL INTEREST RATE DAN GLOBAL RISK INDEX TERHADAP ARUS MASUK MODAL PORTOFOLIO PADA NEGARA-NEGARA EMERGING MARKET DI KAWASAN ASEAN DALAM PERSPEKTIF EKONOMI ISLAM TAHUN 2015-2024

SUSANTI BINTI, SUKAMTO (2026) ANALISIS PENGARUH GLOBAL INTEREST RATE DAN GLOBAL RISK INDEX TERHADAP ARUS MASUK MODAL PORTOFOLIO PADA NEGARA-NEGARA EMERGING MARKET DI KAWASAN ASEAN DALAM PERSPEKTIF EKONOMI ISLAM TAHUN 2015-2024. Diploma thesis, UIN RADEN INTAN LAMPUNG.

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Abstract

ABSTRAK Arus masuk modal portofolio merupakan komponen penting dalam sistem keuangan global seiring meningkatnya integrasi pasar keuangan internasional, khususnya di negara-negara emerging market kawasan ASEAN. Tinggi rendahnya arus masuk modal portofolio sangat dipengaruhi oleh kondisi ekonomi global, terutama global interest rate dan global risk index. Kenaikan suku bunga global serta meningkatnya risiko global dapat mendorong investor internasional mengalihkan dananya ke aset yang lebih aman, sehingga memicu volatilitas arus modal dan berpotensi mengganggu stabilitas ekonomi negara penerima. Penelitian ini menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif berbasis data panel yang merupakan gabungan data time series dan cross section dari lima negara emerging market ASEAN (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Filipina, dan Vietnam) periode 2015-2024 dengan 50 observasi. Data dianalisis menggunakan regresi data panel dengan software EViews 13 untuk menguji pengaruh global interest rate dan global risk index terhadap arus masuk modal portofolio. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan global interest rate berpengaruh negatif signifikan terhadap arus masuk modal portofolio, sedangkan global risk index berpengaruh positif signifikan. Temuan ini mengindikasikan bahwa arus modal portofolio di kawasan ASEAN sangat dipengaruhi oleh dinamika ekonomi global dan persepsi risiko investor internasional. Dalam perspektif ekonomi Islam, arus modal saat ini masih fluktuatif dan spekulatif, belum mencerminkan prinsip stabilitas, keadilan, dan keterikatan pada sektor riil. Diperlukan penguatan pengelolaan arus modal berbasis syariah melalui mekanisme risk-sharing dan instrumen keuangan syariah untuk memberikan kemaslahatan berkelanjutan. Kata Kunci: arus masuk modal portofolio, global interest rate, global risk index, emerging market ASEAN, ekonomi Islam. ABSTRACT Portfolio capital inflows are an important component of the global financial system as international financial market integration increases, particularly in emerging market countries in the ASEAN region. The level of portfolio capital inflows is greatly influenced by global economic conditions, especially global interest rates and global risk indices. Rising global interest rates and increasing global risks can encourage international investors to shift their funds to safer assets, thereby triggering capital flow volatility and potentially disrupting the economic stability of recipient countries. This study uses a quantitative approach based on panel data, which is a combination of time series and cross-section data from five ASEAN emerging market countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines, and Vietnam) for the period 2015-2024 with 50 observations. The data were analyzed using panel data regression with EViews 13 software to test the effect of global interest rates and global risk indices on portfolio capital inflows. The results of the study show that global interest rates have a significant negative effect on portfolio capital inflows, while the global risk index has a significant positive effect. These findings indicate that portfolio capital flows in the ASEAN region are greatly influenced by global economic dynamics and international investor risk perceptions. From an Islamic economic perspective, current capital flows are still volatile and speculative, not yet reflecting the principles of stability, fairness, and attachment to the real sector. It is necessary to strengthen sharia-based capital flow management through risk-sharing mechanisms and sharia financial instruments to provide sustainable benefits. Keywords : portfolio capital inflows, global interest rates, global risk index, ASEAN emerging markets, Islamic economy.

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