PENGARUH EKSPOR, INFLASI, KURS, PENANAMAN MODAL ASING DAN UTANG LUAR NEGERI TERHADAP CADANGAN DEVISA NEGARA INDONESIA TAHUN 2019-2024 DALAM PERSPEKTIF EKONOMI ISLAM

PUTRI, MAR’ATUS SHOLEHA (2026) PENGARUH EKSPOR, INFLASI, KURS, PENANAMAN MODAL ASING DAN UTANG LUAR NEGERI TERHADAP CADANGAN DEVISA NEGARA INDONESIA TAHUN 2019-2024 DALAM PERSPEKTIF EKONOMI ISLAM. Diploma thesis, UIN RADEN INTAN LAMPUNG.

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Abstract

ABSTRAK Penelitian ini dilatarbelakangi oleh pentingnya cadangan devisa dalam menjaga stabilitas ekonomi makro Indonesia, khususnya dalam menghadapi dinamika global periode 2019–2024. Perubahan ekspor, inflasi, kurs, penanaman modal asing, dan utang luar negeri diduga memengaruhi posisi cadangan devisa nasional. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh variabel-variabel tersebut terhadap cadangan devisa Indonesia dalam perspektif ekonomi Islam. Penelitian menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif dengan metode regresi linier berganda berbasis data time series periode 2019–2024. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa secara simultan ekspor, inflasi, kurs, penanaman modal asing, dan utang luar negeri berpengaruh signifikan terhadap cadangan devisa Indonesia. Secara parsial, kurs, penanaman modal asing, dan utang luar negeri berpengaruh positif dan signifikan, sedangkan ekspor dan inflasi tidak berpengaruh signifikan. Dalam perspektif ekonomi Islam, pengelolaan cadangan devisa harus dilakukan secara adil, produktif, dan berkelanjutan untuk menjaga kemaslahatan dan stabilitas ekonomi nasional. ABSTRACT This study is motivated by the crucial role of foreign exchange reserves in maintaining Indonesia’s macroeconomic stability, particularly in responding to global economic dynamics during the 2019–2024 period. Fluctuations in exports, inflation, exchange rates, foreign direct investment, and external debt are assumed to influence the level of national foreign exchange reserves. This study aims to analyze the effect of these variables on Indonesia’s foreign exchange reserves from the perspective of Islamic economics. This research employs a quantitative approach using multiple linear regression analysis based on time series data from 2019 to 2024. The findings indicate that exports, inflation, exchange rates, foreign direct investment, and external debt simultaneously have a significant effect on foreign exchange reserves. Partially, exchange rates, foreign direct investment, and external debt have a positive and significant effect, while exports and inflation do not show a significant effect. From the perspective of Islamic economics, the management of foreign exchange reserves should be conducted based on the principles of justice, productivity, trustworthiness, and sustainability in order to maintain economic stability and public welfare.

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