ANALISIS PENGARUH SUKU BUNGA DAN NILAI TUKAR TERHADAP INFLASI DI NEGARA-NEGARA OKI (ORGANISASI KERJASAMA ISLAM) TAHUN 2019-2023

WIDI, ANGGRAENI (2025) ANALISIS PENGARUH SUKU BUNGA DAN NILAI TUKAR TERHADAP INFLASI DI NEGARA-NEGARA OKI (ORGANISASI KERJASAMA ISLAM) TAHUN 2019-2023. Diploma thesis, UIN RADEN INTAN LAMPUNG.

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Abstract

ABSTRAK Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh suku bunga dan nilai tukar terhadap inflasi di sepuluh negara anggota Organisasi Kerjasama Islam (OKI) selama periode 2019-2023, yakni Guyana, Suriname, Oman, Maldives, Malaysia, Kuwait, Qatar, Sudan, Sierra Leone, dan Albania. Latar belakang penelitian ini didasari oleh tingginya fluktuasi inflasi pasca pandemi COVID-19 yang dipengaruhi oleh dinamika nilai tukar dan suku bunga global, serta relevansi pengendalian inflasi dengan prinsip ekonomi Islam yang menolak praktik riba. Metode penelitian menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif dengan data sekunder dari World Bank. Analisis dilakukan dengan regresi data panel menggunakan perangkat lunak EViews 13, melalui pengujian Common Effect Model, Fixed Effect Model, dan Random Effect Model, serta pemilihan model terbaik menggunakan Uji Chow, Uji Hausman, dan Uji Lagrange Multiplier. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa secara parsial, suku bunga dan nilai tukar berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap inflasi di negara-negara sampel. Secara simultan, kedua variabel tersebut juga berpengaruh signifikan terhadap inflasi. Nilai tukar memiliki koefisien pengaruh yang lebih besar dibandingkan suku bunga, menunjukkan bahwa fluktuasi nilai tukar lebih dominan memicu inflasi, terutama di negara-negara OKI yang bergantung pada impor barang pokok. Temuan ini mengindikasikan perlunya kebijakan moneter yang adaptif dan sesuai prinsip syariah, serta strategi stabilisasi nilai tukar untuk mengendalikan inflasi dan menjaga kesejahteraan masyarakat. Keyword: Inflasi, Suku bunga, Nilai tukar, Negara-negara OKI ABSTRACT This study investigates the influence of interest rates and exchange rates on inflation in ten member countries of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) during the 2019-2023 period, namely Guyana, Suriname, Oman, Maldives, Malaysia, Kuwait, Qatar, Sudan, Sierra Leone, and Albania. The research is motivated by the significant fluctuations in inflation observed after the COVID-19 pandemic, which were driven by global exchange rate volatility, interest rate dynamics, and the imperative to align inflation control measures with Islamic economic principles that prohibit usury. A quantitative research approach was employed, utilizing secondary data obtained from the World Bank. Panel data regression analysis was conducted using EViews 13 software, applying the Common Effect Model, Fixed Effect Model, and Random Effect Model. The most appropriate model was determined through the Chow Test, Hausman Test, and Lagrange Multiplier Test. The findings reveal that both interest rates and exchange rates exert a positive and statistically significant effect on inflation in the sample countries when tested individually. Moreover, both variables collectively have a significant influence on inflation. The exchange rate demonstrates a greater coefficient of influence compared to the interest rate, suggesting that exchange rate volatility is a more dominant driver of inflation, particularly in OIC countries with high dependency on imported essential goods. These results underscore the necessity for adaptive monetary policies that cor with Sharia principles, alongside strategies to stabilize exchange rates in order to manage inflation and safeguard public welfare.

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