PENGARUH CADANGAN DEVISA NEGARA, NERACA PEMBAYARAN, DANJUMLAH UANG BEREDAR TERHADAP TREN NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH

Dila, Nur Aisyah (2024) PENGARUH CADANGAN DEVISA NEGARA, NERACA PEMBAYARAN, DANJUMLAH UANG BEREDAR TERHADAP TREN NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH. Diploma thesis, UIN Raden Intan Lampung.

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Abstract

ABSTRAK Suatu negara dikatakan baik perekonomian nasionalnya apabila terdapat beberapa indikator makroekonomi yang positif, antara lain cadangan devisa yang meningkat, neraca pembayaranyang stabil dan berkurangnya jumlah uang beredar. Penelitian ini menganalisis pengaruh cadangan devisa, neraca pembayaran dan jumlah uang beredar suatu negara terhadap nilai tukar dengan menggunakan data time series tahun 2004-2023 dan model VECM. Hasil uji kausalitas, tidak menemukan hubungan kausalitas antara cadangan davisa dan nilai tukar, sementara neraca pembayaran mempengaruhi nilai tukar, tapi tidak sebaliknya. Selain itu tidak ditemukan pengaruh timbal balik antara jumlah uang beredar dan nilai tukar. Hasil uji VECM secara umum menunjukkan adanya hubungan jangka Panjang dan adanya mekanisme penyesuaian dari jangka pendek kejangka Panjang. Kata Kunci: Nilai Tukar, Cadangan Devisa Nasional, Neraca Pembayaran, Jumlah Uang Beredar. ABSTRACT A country is in good condition with its national economy if there are several positive macroeconomic indicators, including increasing foreign exchange reserves, a stable balance of payments, and a decreased amount of money in circulation. This study analyzes the effect of foreign exchange reserves, balance of payments, and the amount of money in circulation of a country on the exchange rate using time series data from 2004 to 2023 and the VECM model.The causality test results did not find a causal relationship between foreign exchange reservesand the exchange rate. At the same time, the balance of payments affected the exchange rate, but not vice versa. In addition, there was no reciprocal influence between the amount of moneyin circulation and the exchange rate. The results of the VECM test generally show a long-term relationship and an adjustment mechanism from the short term to the long term. Keywords: Exchange Rate, National Foreign Exchange Reserves, Balance of Payments, Money Supply.

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